Storm in My Forecast
Day: 52 — Position: N18 28’ E171 17’
Odometer since Waikiki: about 1,790M
Distance to Northern Marianas: 1,571M
Sea surface temperature: 82.6F - 28.1C
OCEAN ROWING RECORDS AS RUNNING TOTALS
Solo career total in days by Waikiki: 925 now 977 (New World Record)
Overall career total in days by Waikiki: 1,009 now 1,061 (New World Record)
Solo career total in miles by Waikiki: 22,173M now about 23,924M (New World Record)
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Overall career total in miles by Waikiki: 25,153M now about 26,904M
** Ralph Tuijn (NL) leads this with 35,635M
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If you were following my progress on the tracking page using our website menu above, you should have noticed that I made a significant drop due southwest from my original course which had progressed around N20 10’ latitude until last Monday.
During the day on Nov 22nd, Dr. Nicolai Maximenko at the University of Hawaii alerted us to a wind event on the extended forecasts which could produce winds over 40 knots. Jason Christensen at https://racingthewind.com had been monitoring the western Pacific wind patterns. They were both surprised to see how quickly and how far east the high pressure system over Mongolia/Siberia extended in said forecasts. That would create compression zones and its interaction with lows nearby would generate some action.
We quickly assessed the threat from sources available. On my rowboat I can see up to a week of forecast winds using the GFS model on the PredictWind App. For extended forecast beyond seven days, I rely on Jason’s expertise. I could see that the entire wind charts were turning red to my west and north, drawing winds up from my latitude. That suggested I could be sucked north losing control of my entire crossing. So we immediately decided to take the rowboat south in anticipation.
As more data became available, we realized this was more serious than simply my rowboat being pushed around. It seemed that this high bringing strong NE winds, was going to force an emerging extratropical low pressure system to my east to pass right over me. On one of the models the next day, Jason identified that overnight Fri Dec 3 into Sat Dec 4, the storm center would form near (N18.0 E171.9) due my SW at the time. In the bottom half of my tracking page, PredictWind display shows winds around my last reported position. London based Ocean Rowing Society designed a tracking page for my crossing, layering my track over Windy(dot)com. You have more options to browse short term wind forecasts there: https://oceanrowing.com/map/live?expid=1073
In the northern hemisphere, the sectors NW and N of tropical storms generate stronger winds and bigger seas; that is because on this half of the globe, lows spin CCW and existing NE trade winds add intensity in said sectors. So my goal became to reach south of 18th parallel to position my rowboat on the less threatening side of the eye. On Thanksgiving Day, the worst case scenario looked as 25-35 knots gusting up to 45 with 25-ft cross seas, not as serious as a named tropical storm however still very concerning. We have been monitoring the forecast models since.
Being this close to the eye of a storm with long fetch swells arriving from strong winds from the high, is a recipe for dangerous sea state, way beyond “small craft advisory.” Models agreed on 8m (24-ft) seas showing above 10m (33-ft) near 19N with twice as high possible. Crossing wave patterns would produce sloshy boxing seas, perhaps rolling or pitchpoling my rowboat. Long fetch swells can turn rogue and unpredictable when interacting with evolving storm waves which will change direction as the low spins ever closer. Jason was also seeing that by 17N latitude, the significant wave height would drop down to 5m (16-ft).
In the 24 hours since Erden sent this update, forecast changed and is less severe. The low will pass further north, allowing Erden to turn west at the red marker near N17.5.
So I will continue my descent SW to put some distance between my rowboat and the storm. When I must during the storm, I will make sure that the deck is cleared of any loose items, everything stowed away or tied down. I will remove my oars and tie them down on the deck. I will bring out my para-anchor and related lines from the front stowage then prepare the system for easy deployment. There will be no digging around for parts or wasting time for setup during a bellowing storm.
I will have my PFD within reach in the cabin, have a large pee bottle inside along with some water and snacks that won’t require me to boil water. I will use the four eyes that I had bolted on either side of the cabin and by my shoulders to cross tie myself down in order to stay on the mattress, in case the boat does roll. This is critical to make sure that other than injuring myself by being tossed around, I don’t end up sitting on the ceiling of a capsized vessel, holding it down by acting like shifted ballast.
The critical transition is when the conditions are severe enough that I may risk breaking an oar or an oarlock by rowing. That is when I would retire in the cabin. Once inside, I will likely stay there until the storm blows past my location.
Erden is always tied to his rowboat regardless of sea state. A 20-ft line from his ankle clips to a Dyneema jackline that runs the length of his short deck.
NOAA Commander Mark Miller (retired) on our shore team had already started a dialogue with USCG JRSC Guam over a week ago after I reached the halfway mark between Honolulu and the Marianas. He is in touch with USCG to establish an orderly evacuation plan which we can quickly unfurl during the upcoming storm. This would involve help from nearby commercial vessels already registered to assist in an emergency under the AMVER system (Automated Mutual-Assistance Vessel Rescue). One was 200M from my location on Thanksgiving Day and numerous at 300M. So a vessel could arrive at my site within 24-48 hours.
How we would manage to get me off the rowboat in what could be over 10m seas is another story. The captain would most likely place their vessel across the wind upwind of me creating a wind shadow and a relatively calm slick on their lee side to enable safer evacuation procedures. That is why I must descend to south of 17th parallel.
Please follow my Twitter account @erdeneruc for running commentary on my crossing. I am active on Instagram as well, also as @erdeneruc which you should consider following. I can post more easily on Twitter than on Instagram during the upcoming storm. The latter requires using the larger BGAN terminal and I will hesitate if I must stick it outside the hatch for better reception while sea spray is in the air.
I will post again once this storm passes.
Erden