Strategize all I want — what now?
Written late on August 27th, HAST
Day: 66 — Odometer: about 2,179M
Position: N23 29’ W151 41’
Distance from start: 1,757M
Nearest land: NE shores of Maui 287M due 223T
Waikiki Yacht Club by my course: 373M due WSW
ETA: Sept 7-8, maybe not at all, see below
RECORDS as running totals
Solo career total in days at launch: 845 now 911
Overall career total in days at launch: 928 now 994
Solo career total in miles at launch: 27,595M now about 29,774M
Overall career total in miles at launch: 31,083M now about 33,262M
==> Ralph Tuijn (NL) leads the last one with 35,635M
Actual distance rowed in miles will append to my existing career totals at launch in solo and overall categories; to become official, London based Ocean Rowing Society must adjudicate supporting GPX files from my chart plotter and YB Tracker.
—-oOo—-
Tropical Storm (TS) Marty was not well formed and quickly dissipated south of Baja Peninsula. TS Nora also formed along Mexican shores and will run NNW along the coast… All quiet on the western front, thankfully; but this eerie quiet is foreboding.
I aimed further south than a straight line to Kaiwi Channel between the islands of Molokai and Oahu. The North Hawaiian Ridge Current flows WNW along the north side of the island chain. NHRC is partly the northern swath of the westerly running North Equatorial Current and all the sea set in motion by the prevailing NE trades, meeting this barrier of islands and deflecting. There was also a CCW arc of local current on my course that I wanted to engage as far east as possible. These would want to set me west, so I was attempting to create myself room to run.
I had felt some weird surface currents over the last 4-5 days. Some days the boat ran off course due NW especially as I rested. Other days it felt like molasses under my boat just not letting her move. Throughout all of this, I was conscious that moving slowly at this stage of my crossing in this hurricane alley, was asking for trouble. I could not shake the exposed feeling of being the lone standing pin in a bowling lane. Until now all tropical storms have been gutter balls but it takes only one to ruin my day.
Yesterday I seemed to find my pace again. Then overnight and early today that fast flowing arc of local current grabbed my rowboat. I was being carried due 290T at 1.3-1.5 knots, moving west faster than I should; I had to descend south. This was messing up my plans big time.
Besides the slow pace earlier and the swift westerly flow that took charge, what also bothers me is the forecast of ESE winds over the next week. Coupled with NHRC, they will force me west and it is most likely that I will have to route north of Oahu. I have my legitimate worries at this time about my odds of rounding Koko Head toward Waikiki.
I will soon make a decision about whether to press on nonstop as was my original plan. Maybe the new chart plotter and other items like clothing and food can be transferred to me at sea… better start asking.
In ocean rowing, the strategy is not so much to follow the rhumb line to one’s destination but to decide where to place the rowboat to take advantage of what The Ocean will offer. These locations unfold as a series of carefully selected intermediate waypoints. With modern tools to forecast winds and to read currents, it is also possible to make shorter term tactical decisions along the course to affect the outcome. One must always remember that we are dealing with an underpowered vessel with limitations subject to the whims of nature.
It is a chess game that I play on the wide expanse of The Ocean with one game piece, multiple variables and trusted few inputs. I make my move anticipating counter moves, fully prepared against and constantly adjusting to surprise attacks. It is greatly satisfying when I deliver the game piece in one piece to a suitable destination for it demonstrates mastery of the medium which is not for the faint of heart.
The Ocean is indifferent to my emotions, feelings or even life; it is just there as a formidable foe, raising and dashing one’s hopes on a regular basis. It is an honest teacher, quickly exposing my weaknesses and rewarding my strengths. If I prepared well, we get along just fine, else it knit picks every gap in my defenses.
The strategic waypoint selection first happens during route design, while studying 10-15 years worth of climatological data to digest what The Ocean is likely to offer statistically at a given location at a given time of the year. That is data on wind, swells and currents… Then one would plan a route using 30M/day and 1000M/month as a rule of thumb. Considering storm seasons and past storm tracks is also essential to choose the safest path. One is looking for the most likely to succeed course across The Ocean. Having multiple landfall options and the flexibility to develop alternative plans on the run help tremendously. That design process then suggests a departure point and a launch window, which is really the only absolute in the sport of ocean rowing.
After the launch, it becomes a game of statistics to help move the rowboat or to rest if things are going as planned, else to slow the rowboat or to work harder to get back on the designed route. Much like what happened near Point Conception, overtime is required to go from one wind regime to another, likewise with current regimes. Repeated often enough, this process delivers the rower within grasp of the intended destination. That is why two or more rowers have a higher likelihood of success on difficult routes; a solo rower who needs rest at some point, is more vulnerable to variations in weather and sea state.
In a way, we are seeing in real time how my choice of Crescent City in late June for launch, continue to influence my options today. Seeing how challenging it is proving to reroute to Waikiki, that launch choice was clearly the correct one to press on west passing north of Hawaii. I had planned a nonstop crossing as an adventurer, chose my launch parameters then tried to impose on it a visit to Waikiki to satisfy my city-dweller’s needs such as a visa to China, a PoA to my brother and wants like nice to have fixes and improvements to my rowboat, seeing Nancy and Buddy again… Once I got it in my head that I was going to stop at Waikiki, the list began to grow longer.
Well for one thing: the visa to China will not happen. China has been closed to foreigners on account of the pandemic since March when I first applied. That I will have been isolated for months in a self imposed quarantine on a rowboat with no human interaction, makes no difference to bureaucracy. I have tried at every level; even the Turkish Embassy in Beijing and the Turkish Consulate in Los Angeles contacted their counterparts to no avail. The answer always came back to a version of: “there will be no exceptions, reapply when our visa office in San Francisco opens.”
So Vietnam may well become an alternate landfall option.
As for the rest of my wants, I may have to manage without. Please stay tuned.
Erden.