Various destinations and my odds

Reported on January 15, 2022
Day: 100 — Position: N19 17.9’ E155 37.2’
Odometer since Waikiki: about 2,816M
Distance to Northern Marianas: 589M
Sea surface temperature: 80.6F - 27.0C

OCEAN ROWING RECORDS AS RUNNING TOTALS
Solo career total in days: 1,025 (New World Record)
Overall career total in days: 1,109 (New World Record)
Solo career total in miles by Waikiki: 22,173M now about 24,791M (New World Record)
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Overall career total in miles by Waikiki: 25,153M now about 27,771M
* Ralph Tuijn (NL) leads this with 35,635M
** Circumference of the Earth along the equator is 21,600M long

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In my Jan 8 update, I wrote: 

“While I believe that I should be able to work these weather systems, I am concerned about the fate of my crossing; the outcome is not certain. I assign odds to various destinations once a week and contemplate alternate plans to execute, should that be warranted.”

So let’s talk about those odds. Below are my options north to south and their likelihood as of today. The farther north that I remain as I approach the Marianas, the better my odds will be in favor of Luzon Strait. Should my course drift WSW then I may have to make an early commitment toward the remaining options below.

Keep in mind that these odds will change in my favor as weather systems shift north with the northward advance of noon ground position of the sun, a seasonal routine which has been going on since winter solstice in late December. So in February and March, the average winds will veer, e.g. instead of NNE-NE winds, I will receive NE-ENE winds.

30% — Luzon Strait as planned. As long as I can maintain my positional advantage in latitude by the time that I reach the Northern Marianas, I have a fighting chance to pass through Luzon Strait into the South China Sea as I had planned.

40% — Legaspi then overland across Luzon island to relaunch from San Fernando. This is a very likely destination should my course be depressed south on account of northerly winds on either side of the longitude of the Marianas. Should I feel that I would not be able to recover my losses in northing even with help from the Kuroshio Current which runs fast along the NE shores of Luzon island toward Luzon Strait, I would have to divert SW toward Legaspi. The winds may help but the feeder currents into Kuroshio would try to sweep me NW along the Philippine shores. So I would have to commit early to negotiate a proper approach; the alternative is to commit and to go for broke toward Luzon Strait, a nail-biter option for all my tracking dot-watchers including my shore team. We are looking into whether we can arrange a vessel to shadow me for safety on the final approach to Legaspi. If I can reach Legaspi under my own power, then I would transport my rowboat overland by truck to San Fernando on the NW side of the island. Perhaps a bicycle would offer a fun means to get myself to San Fernando before relaunching on the South China Sea.

10% — Stop at the south end of Mindanao. This is an option which most likely would terminate my expedition. I would fight to turn the SE corner of Mindanao Island but ports like Mati City or General Santos City would be deep inside bays, well sheltered from the northerly winds. I would have to be towed against the wind into one of those ports. A tow would terminate my expedition. It is also unlikely that I can travel north by human power from there to San Fernando which would require island hopping by sea kayak across treacherous channels with swift currents. Arranging logistics and a safety vessel may prove complicated and prohibitive.

15% — Celebes Sea to Makassar Strait, stop at Balikpapan. Assuming that I can turn the corner around Mindanao into Celebes Sea, seasonal winds would help me reach the entrance to Makassar Strait and I would proceed halfway down the strait to the coastal town of Balikpapan on the east side of Borneo. This would be my port of entry into Indonesia. Depending on my observations and mood, I may terminate the expedition there and decide to arrange logistics of shipping my rowboat.

5% — clockwise around Borneo toward Singapore. This would resume from Balikpapan. This is the improbable path that Karlis Bardelis rowed during his Bored of Borders expedition still continuing around the world (www.boredofborders.com). He reached Pontian in Malaysia just west of Singapore. To negotiate opposing currents, he had to stay very close to shore in “sometimes too shallow” waters. He had to anchor at night or tie to a buoy if he ever found one. Anchoring was not always feasible as turning tides fouled his line on reefs often forcing a dive to free his ground tackle. When he finally lost his anchor, he resorted to dragging a spare battery on the bottom to reduce his drift. Singapore forbids human powered vessels around their ports and would arrest anyone trying. So he opted for Pontian to its west. Karlis was kind to share with me his experience with this route. We shall see whether I would be as brave in pushing my own rowboat into such waters…

Erden