Final Decision — Routing to Guam
Day: 111 — Position: N16 37.0’ E151 43.3’
Odometer since Waikiki: about 3,091M
Distance to Guam: 478M
Sea surface temperature: 82.6F - 28.1C
OCEAN ROWING RECORDS AS RUNNING TOTALS
Solo career total in days: 1,036 (New World Record)
Overall career total in days: 1,120 (New World Record)
Solo career total in miles by Waikiki: 22,173M now about 25,034M (New World Record)
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Overall career total in miles by Waikiki: 25,153M now about 28,014M
* Ralph Tuijn (NL) leads this with 35,635M
** Circumference of the Earth along the equator is 21,600M long
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In all of the discussion of winds below, please keep in mind that a whole platoon of individuals are rallying on shore, arranging rush shipments to Guam and trying to coordinate resources on Guam and Saipan to receive my rowboat. As I battle the fickle winds in the trenches, a decision is emerging about whether I should go to Saipan or to Guam which is about 125M further SW.
Sandy Leipheimer lives on Guam. She is a fellow Brigand who attended Brussels American High School during the same years that I had between 1975-78. Apart from providing us a local address to ship items, and a welcomed supportive ally to Nancy, she connected my shore team to the Marianas Yacht Club (MYC) and the harbormaster’s office. She has been a gem making phone calls for various needs, much like Michel Swenson was on Oahu, also a Brigand perhaps a decade my senior.
NOAA Commander (ret) Mark Miller is leading the efforts of my shore team to coordinate landfall preparations. He has already contacted MYC, their Commander Mark Andersen, Guam Harbormaster and JRSC USCG Sector Guam. Fellow Rotarian Marc Di Tommaso who hosted me one night in Medford-OR before my launch in June, was volunteering contacts on Saipan. Doug Woodring, the president of Ocean Recovery Alliance (https://www.oceanrecov.org) had connections on Guam who could help. Mark made phone calls and sent emails to ensure my safe arrival and a secure place to dock my rowboat. And dear friend Bill Hinsley was able to secure my replacement phone.
On Sunday the 23rd, after looking at the wind forecasts, Jason Christensen (https://racingthewind.com) and I decided that I should aim for Guam. That day, I expected easterly winds which eventually pushed me on para anchor after sunset. Going west too far would jeopardize my hopes of f landfall and lead me between Saipan and Guam.
The next day on Monday, starting around midday I was supposed to receive ENE winds but instead, I received moderate SE winds and their associated wind waves. I could barely maintain 240T degrees over ground by keeping my heading southerly with the wind blowing over my right shoulder almost opposing me. When I stopped, the boat ran due 290-300T degrees, which was ridiculous. After what felt like a treadmill I had to deploy the para anchor again by mid afternoon. I stayed on para until midnight when the winds finally filled in from the NE.
That SE spell of winds were not anywhere on the forecasts. We were puzzled. Tonga, where the recent eruption occurred causing tsunamis, is almost 2,000M due southeast from where I am. So Jason found some interesting facts about the atmospheric effects of the volcanic eruption at Tonga:
"The atmospheric wave pattern close to the eruption was quite complicated, but thousands of miles away it appeared as an isolated wave front traveling horizontally at over 650 miles an hour as it spread outward.”
"This atmospheric wave has travelled around the world at least three times"
"This eruption was so powerful that it caused the atmosphere to ring like a bell, though at a frequency too low to hear. It’s a phenomenon first theorized over 200 years ago" (in the context of Krakatoa eruption).
Given the surprise SE blow and its abrupt end, caused us to speculate that perhaps I received the ever diminishing fourth or fifth ATW trip of Tonga’s atmospheric wave, who knows?
Jason was quick to quip that I could “put ‘unexpected volcano weather’ in our list of anomalies on this crossing. From the exaggerated coastal trough to the busier than normal hurricane season, to unexpected volcanic eruptions, you'll have to footnote your records, so people who try it in an average year know how above average this one was!”
With the easterly component to winds, I thought the boat would move west faster than I could take her south so after I gathered the para late on Monday night, I began rowing toward Saipan again. The boat was finally tracking on course. The wind shift was obvious. The breeze was on my right as I rowed instead of opposing me. What a difference that made!
We were trying all along to come up with a point and date for a Go versus No-Go decision toward Guam but our hand was forced by the weather yesterday. As the northerly then northeasterly winds filled, it became difficult to keep course for Saipan. I had to row nonstop to maintain 255-260 (WSW) at just over 1-knot boat speed. I asked Jason to check the extended forecast again and he confirmed that I could attempt Guam and provided a waypoint due 228 degrees (SW) to avoid fickle weather patterns in between. The wind and the waves were aligning by then; my pace immediately increased to 1.8-2.5 knots due SW and stayed up there all day as I rowed.
Getting further south will take me south from the tropical demarcation line, which was causing odd swirls with colliding seasonal winds. The winds should become more predictable and stable over the next few days and weeks. Let’s just hope that I don’t get pushed west more than I would like, passing north of Guam.
Currents will become swift as I approach the ridge of the Mariana Islands, which will make it a navigational challenge to remain on course. These will require less sleep and more time on the oars to control my destiny. They will create a sense of adventure with the requisite mix of uncertainty and excitement, ultimately culminating in gratitude and a well-earned feeling of satisfaction when I can finally drop anchor at the Apra Harbor entrance, ETA Feb 10-11.
As always, I appreciate your support and good wishes for my safe passage. Nancy and I are truly grateful to all of our team who have my back and are helping to move this journey with their kindness and generosity.
Erden